Oil sanctions and oil transfer routes in the post-Daesh era have created new challenges for the energy market. These developments, coinciding with increasing social and economic discontent, raise new questions about protest processes and the ability to form social movements.
History of Discontent and Social Protests
Unprecedented economic pressure in recent years has pushed a large segment of society towards protest. Discontent has become so deep and widespread that any spark can lead to widespread protests. This situation has become a serious challenge, especially in conditions where the government's repressive force remains cohesive and ready.
Historical Patterns and the Need for Rethinking
History shows that methods of protest and organization change over time, and a pattern that was effective at one point may lose its efficacy in other conditions and locations. For example, in the French revolutions of the 19th century, street barricading played an important role in advancing protests at certain points. However, with the development of military organization and urban control methods, many of these tactics were neutralized.
These experiences indicate that merely repeating past patterns is not sufficient, and there is a need to rethink methods and forms of struggle. Each country has its own specific characteristics and conditions, and the security apparatus of the Islamic Republic has sought to apply appropriate strategies for repression by examining and analyzing changes in other countries.
Organization and Social Coordination
In the absence of organizations that can articulate demands and create collective decision-making about the movement's direction, protests will face significant costs. Organization requires independent networks and social ties that can connect different social groups. This is especially vital in conditions of repression.
For instance, in the protests in Egypt against Hosni Mubarak, various factors such as economic discontent and the activities of youth groups played a significant role, but these factors did not lead to the establishment of stable democracy. Therefore, the overthrow of a government alone is not sufficient, and there is a need for democratic institutions and a clear political program.
Linking Economic and Political Demands
The ability of a protest movement to articulate demands that can connect broader segments of society is another determining factor in its success. During the Green Movement in 2009, a significant portion of the slogans and demands of the movement had a political and electoral nature, which imposed significant limitations on these protests.
Ultimately, for success in protest movements, there is a need to create capacities for trust, participation, and collective decision-making. Without these capacities, no protest movement can easily achieve a specific outcome.
