Ocean Network Express (ONE) has introduced the 'View of the World' project to examine various economic and container shipping scenarios for 2050 and is seeking to determine the necessary strategies for today. This method, known as 'backcasting', starts from future scenarios instead of predicting from the current state and works backward to identify the necessary requirements to achieve that future.
New Planning Method
According to a ONE representative, this method is not designed to produce new forecasts but is used as a strategic planning tool. They outline potential scenarios for the future of maritime transport by examining various perspectives and then determine the actions that need to be taken now.
Advantages and Challenges of 'Backcasting'
The use of the 'backcasting' method in the transport industry is very important due to the long lifespan of assets like ships. According to Mark Williams, Director of Shipping Strategy Consulting, this method is currently more recognized in non-commercial fields and can help shipowners plan for a low-carbon future in 2050. This method allows shipowners to consider different scenarios without relying on linear forecasts.
However, one of the main challenges of this method is the risk of wishful thinking. For example, if a sudden scientific discovery like teleportation occurs, the need for maritime transport may drastically decrease. Therefore, continuous updating of 'backcasting' scenarios is essential.
Ultimately, the 'backcasting' method is seen as a useful tool for strategic planning in areas such as sustainability and carbon reduction. This method enables shipowners and other stakeholders to collectively move towards a better future.
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