The Russian military convoy has moved from the Baltiysk naval base located in Kaliningrad towards the port of Tobruk in eastern Libya. This convoy includes sanctioned cargo ships specifically engaged in transporting military cargo.
Details of the Convoy's Movement
The Rupture-class warship named Alexander Shabalin (L110) along with the cargo ships Anastasia (IMO 9349291) and Yuri Arshenevsky (IMO 8406705) have been passing through the Strait of Gibraltar towards the port of Tobruk on September 10. These ships are under sanctions due to their history of transporting military cargo and have loaded items such as Ural trucks and armored vehicles from the Baltiysk base.
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Forecast for the Final Use of Military Equipment
The final destination for the use of this military equipment is still unclear. There is a possibility that this equipment will be sent to the Libyan National Army led by Khalifa Haftar, a U.S. citizen who controls Tobruk and eastern Libya. Haftar is in conflict with the official government based in Tripoli, which is supported by Turkey. On the other hand, this equipment may be sent to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, which are supported by the UAE government. It is also possible that this equipment will be used as part of Russia's efforts to support government forces in Central African countries.
Analysis of the Military Situation in Libya
Russian naval activities, especially in the Mediterranean Sea, are a target for Ukraine, which seeks to weaken Russia in every possible way. Recent reports indicate that Ukraine has deployed a drone group at the Misrata airbase, which is also attended by Turkey. This group is responsible for attacks on Russian ships and vessels belonging to the shadow fleet in the Mediterranean Sea. These attacks include an assault on the Russian military cargo ship named Lady Maria (IMO 9220641) on September 7. These attacks have been carried out using bomber drones that are fired at targets from a distance.
Additionally, it is expected that the Lady Maria, which is currently anchoring north of the Suez Canal after the attack, will soon proceed southward. This ship may be seeking Russian naval support before passing through the same area where it was attacked.
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