Matthew Gould, in a note published on September 25, analyzes the current state of the Islamic Republic and the Revolutionary Guard. He emphasizes that despite widespread protests and the death of Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic has managed to remain in power.
Changes and the Persistence of the Government
Gould refers to two major developments this year. First, the protests in December 2025, which he describes as the most serious protests the government has faced. These protests began not only with students but also with a strike by merchants in the Grand Bazaar of Tehran and spread to all provinces of Iran. Estimates indicate that the number of protesters in the streets of Tehran has reached over one million.
The second development was the death of Ali Khamenei in airstrikes by the United States and Israel on February 28 of last year. Gould states that if a change in leadership could lead to a change in government, that would have been the best opportunity for it. However, the government has once again endured, and power has been transferred to the next generation.
Five Factors for Change
Matthew Gould lists five factors for the overthrow of the government:
- Return of the People to the Streets: He believes that Iranians must return to the streets to protest and rebuild their coalitions.
- Durability of Protests: Protests must continue after suppression and internet shutdowns.
- Creating Infrastructure for Organization: Citizens must be able to organize even without the internet.
- Instability of Security Forces: Revolutions succeed when military forces become hesitant.
- Future of Middle Forces: Mid-level officials must realize that the old order has ended.
Gould ultimately warns that if one day the government is overthrown, a period of chaos and leadership vacuum may arise, allowing separatist groups in the peripheral regions of Iran to gain power.
