As the Ukraine crisis continues, Russia is increasing military threats and movements along NATO borders. Analysts view the ongoing attacks by Ukraine on Russia's energy infrastructure, along with economic sanctions, as signs of a broader crisis.
Security Developments in Europe
In recent weeks, several European governments have taken measures to enhance their preparedness against the potential expansion of the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war. Donald Tusk, the Prime Minister of Poland, has warned that Russia may carry out hybrid attacks on countries supporting Ukraine. Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, has also reported on the severity of Russian threats and issued directives to protect critical infrastructure. In Germany, the capacity of hospitals for a potential war scenario with Russia is being assessed, and in the UK, discussions about public preparedness for severe disruptions have returned to the public sphere.
Attacks on Energy Infrastructure and Their Consequences
Analysts note the intensification of Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries and export terminals. According to reports from the International Energy Agency, by September 2026, more than 20 out of 34 major Russian refineries have been targeted. This has led to a significant reduction in refinery processing capacity and fuel shortages in some regions of Russia. These attacks go beyond a tactical operation and are considered a direct economic pressure on Moscow.
As financial sanctions face challenges, these attacks put pressure on Russia, forcing the Kremlin into a position of 'inevitability.' Recent analyses suggest that economic pressures may not reduce Moscow's aggressive behavior but rather push it toward intensifying hybrid warfare against Europe.
The current situation, coinciding with crises in the Persian Gulf, especially for regional players like Iran, has dual aspects. Overall, the increase in tensions in the Middle East and Europe could create new challenges for Iran but may also bring new economic opportunities.
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