Russian attacks on commercial ships in the Black Sea, particularly along NATO shores including Romania and Bulgaria, have sharply increased. According to maritime experts, these attacks, which began particularly in early July, have serious commercial implications for shipping in this region.
Increase in Attacks and Their Impact on Shipping
Maritime analysts have reported a significant rise in attacks on ships in the Black Sea. For instance, the attack on the commercial ship Contship Jet near Bulgaria has raised serious concerns regarding maritime security. Richard Mead, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, noted that shipowners are considering refusing orders to Romanian and Bulgarian ports, indicating a shift in calculations regarding maritime risks.
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In the past month, a series of drone attacks on ships along NATO shores, particularly Romania and Bulgaria, have heightened concerns about maritime risks. The maritime security company Ambrey reported that 696 security incidents have been recorded in the western Black Sea, with about 537 of those occurring in Ukrainian waters.
Discrimination in Attacks and New Risks
With the onset of Operation MoLoChKa, the number of attacks on commercial ships has increased unprecedentedly. According to Thomas Alexa, senior analyst at Ambrey, direct attacks on commercial ships in the waters of Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, and Georgia have clearly risen. These countries are NATO members, and the increase in attacks on them indicates the geographical expansion of these threats.
Between October 5 and October 28, Ambrey recorded 10 attacks on ships at sea, eight of which were by aerial drones and two by unmanned vessels. All these attacks have been attributed to Russia. Alexa also noted that ships participating in search and rescue operations face the risk of secondary attacks and explosions.
Analysts believe that ships with links to Ukraine, such as owners, managers, cargo, or last or next ports, are at greater risk of being targeted. The attack on the Liberian-flagged and Greek Contship Jet indicates that potential cargoes heading towards Ukraine could be sufficient to make a ship a target.
Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and their infrastructure have reduced Ukraine's ability to export from its ports by up to 95 percent. These attacks have led to a rerouting of Ukrainian grain exports, and Ambrey has also noted a significant trend towards the ports of Sulina and the Danube Delta.
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