Independent tanker owners, especially in the VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax/LR2 categories, will earn an average of $400 million daily in 2026, exceeding their initial forecasts. If this figure continues for a year, it will be nearly equal to the total profit of the container shipping industry during the boom period coinciding with the pandemic.
Revenue Analysis and Forecasts
According to recent reports, the tanker market has changed in such a way that independent owners can generate about $12 billion in additional income in a month. In this scenario, quarterly revenue will reach $36 billion, and annual revenue will amount to $146 billion. In comparison, the container shipping industry earned about $150 billion in profit in 2022, which is recognized as the best financial year for this industry.
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Current Rates and Market Impacts
Calculations show that nearly half of the independent tanker fleet is currently generating revenue at unprecedented rates. Daily earnings for VLCC tankers have reached $643,000, Suezmax at $457,000, and Aframax at $256,000. Additionally, VLCC tanker earnings on the route from the Persian Gulf to China have exceeded $1.3 million per day.
However, the tanker transportation market has been influenced not only by these revenues but also by evaluations of outstanding assets. According to available data, for the first time in September, the value of a 15-year-old VLCC tanker surpassed that of a new tanker, with these values increasing by 196 percent compared to last year.
Middle Eastern buyers are increasingly willing to pay any cost to secure the fleet. Data shows that 34 tankers were purchased by regional interests between July 1 and October 5, an increase from 21 last year. These purchases include 19 VLCC tankers, representing a significant increase in buying activity in this sector compared to just one last year.
Statistics indicate that given the current revenues, these facts about the secondary values of ships can quickly revert. For example, for tankers immediately available for sale, the market value reaches $235 million, compared to $130 million for a new tanker to be delivered in 2029, which is a notable fact.
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