The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, as a strategic move in response to military threats, has caused a shortage in the physical oil market and a sharp increase in Brent oil prices. This situation clearly demonstrates the direct impact of geopolitical developments on the global energy market.
Analysis of the Oil Market Situation
Brent crude from the North Sea is one of the main benchmarks for pricing in the global oil market, and its price changes can reflect the overall condition of this market. With the onset of the third imposed war on ٩ Esfand ١٤٠٤ (February ٢٨, ٢٠٢٦) and Iran's action to close the Strait of Hormuz, Brent oil prices have risen sharply. During the peak days of the war, the future Brent price reached $١١٨ and the spot Brent price reached $١٣٨, but with the announcement of a temporary ceasefire, these prices decreased.
Read more: Export of five million and ١٤٠ thousand tons of oil products from Shahid Rajaei Port
However, after the U.S. violated the agreement in implementing the Islamabad memorandum and the resumption of hostilities, the future and spot Brent prices increased to $١٠٨ and $١٣٥, respectively. This price increase indicates the lasting impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shortage of physical shipments in the market.
Price Gap Between Future and Spot Brent Oil
The price gap between future and spot Brent oil was between $٠.٥ and $١.٥ in the days leading up to the war, but during the peak of the crisis, it increased to nearly $٣٠. This gap, which indicates a real shortage in the physical oil market, clearly shows that buyers are willing to pay a higher price for physical oil shipments to ensure immediate delivery.
Refineries, as one of the main customers of physical oil, are significantly affected by these price increases, leading to higher production costs for oil products such as gasoline and diesel. Recent studies indicate that the price gap between future and spot Brent oil has started to increase since early Shahrivar ١٤٠٥ (September ٢٠٢٦) and reached a record $٣٣ on ١٠ Mehr (October ٢).
This situation indicates that the leverage of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran remains effective in the oil market, and due to the depletion of oil reserves, this effect is increasing over time. Currently, although the future Brent price has not reached previous peak prices, the shortage of physical shipments has led to an increase in spot Brent prices and a record-breaking price gap for Brent.
As a result, the current state of the oil market clearly shows that the leverage of the Strait of Hormuz is still in Iran's hands, and its impact on the structure of the global energy market is clearly noticeable.
Read more: Smart Fuel System Manager: Unidentified cards are monitored · French Navy seizes DF Peak tanker in the Indian Ocean
