Maritime transport is recognized as an early warning system for the global economy. However, in recent years, this relationship has become more complex, and its connection to economic activities has significantly decreased. These changes are due to wars, sanctions, and shifts in trade policies that increasingly affect the demand for ships.
History and Importance of Maritime Transport
In past decades, maritime transport was seen as an early indicator of the strength of the global economy. The demand for dry cargo typically reflected industrial production and consumer goods consumption, while container cargo flows provided insights into consumer behavior and manufacturing trade. Based on this theory, if ships become busier, economic activity is expected to increase in the following months.
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Adam Kent, CEO of Maritime Strategies International, emphasizes that in the past, this theory worked accurately, and the demand for dry cargo served as a guide for growth in developing countries, especially China.
Impact of Wars and Sanctions
Research indicates that the relationship between maritime transport and economic activities has significantly weakened in recent years. Kent points out that the maritime transport market is currently experiencing one of the strongest revenue conditions in its history, while global maritime trade may decline this year. Wars, sanctions, and policy changes create a type of demand for ships that increasingly weakens its connection to actual cargo growth.
For example, cargoes that are thousands of miles away from a key point can significantly increase the demand for ships without adding to global trade volume. Additionally, tanker revenues increasingly reflect energy security and changing trade patterns.
Rovar Adland, Global Head of Research at SSY, expresses skepticism about this theory, stating, "The claim that shipping predicts the global economy has always been questionable." He emphasizes that this relationship is likely to weaken further.
Ultimately, changes in GDP composition also present another challenge. Services have increasingly dominated developed economies, while artificial intelligence and computing have emerged as larger factors in economic activities.
Overall, the results indicate that currently, more useful economic signals are not freight rates, but the physical movement of ships. John Hoffman, Global Head of Maritime Transport and Ports at the World Bank, notes that official trade statistics only appear after customs registration, while a ship's position, origin, destination, and speed can be quickly observed.
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