Argyris Zafeiropoulos, senior consultant in resilience and compliance consulting, has analyzed the new challenges that the maritime transport industry faces in light of new carbon regulations. With the full implementation of the European Union's greenhouse gas emissions trading system in maritime transport and the tightening of FuelEU Maritime regulations, carbon has now become one of the key elements in every contract.
Financial Obligations and Commercial Implications
According to calculations, just on a loaded trip from the Persian Gulf to Rotterdam, the FuelEU penalty alone will reach approximately €246,000 (equivalent to $276,000) by 2040. This calculation varies depending on the type of contract and is the responsibility of the ship's compliance document holder. In time charter contracts, the charterer is usually responsible for reimbursing these penalties, while in voyage contracts, the owner adds this cost to the freight rate.
Decision-Making Path and Data Control
A question that has received less attention in this context is the actual location of these carbon decisions and access to the relevant data. Over the past decade, there has been a trend towards data sharing using cloud platforms to upload fleet information and fuel consumption. While this method is convenient, it significantly reduces control over sensitive data and incurs hidden costs.
Many platforms act as black boxes; they may provide data on ETS or FuelEU penalties, but the methodologies used in these calculations are not available to the user. This raises serious questions about the accuracy of the calculations and their interpretation. In a market where carbon is negotiated line by line, unverifiable calculations can become a financial burden.
Shift Towards Commercial Decision-Making
The real change in this area is from reporting to decision-making. A charterer comparing two similar ships on the same route may conclude that a cheaper freight rate is actually more expensive due to additional carbon costs. If these calculations become apparent after the contract is signed, they are considered compliance calculations, but if they are identified before signing, they become a business decision.
These changes affect not only a specific voyage but also years ahead. According to calculations, costs associated with FuelEU penalties on future voyages will increase significantly. For example, in the voyage of an Aframax ship, the penalty cost is currently around €19,000 ($21,300) and is expected to reach €50,000 ($56,100) by 2030 and €246,000 ($276,000) by 2040. These costs directly impact long-term contracts.
Ultimately, these equations also affect the cargo. In the mentioned voyage, the total costs of ETS and FuelEU reach approximately €104,000 (equivalent to $116,600), which amounts to about €1 ($1.12) per ton for a 100,000-ton cargo.
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