Affinity Shipping, in its latest analysis, has examined daily average revenues in the maritime shipping industry from the 1970s to the present and has shown that while nominal records are being broken, economic realities indicate a significant gap between these records and the actual historical records.
New Records and Economic Realities
According to Clarksons, the ClarkSea Index reached a new record of $66,421 per day last week, which is 30% higher than the previous record in December 2007. This index, established in 1990, has now nearly tripled its long-term average. However, Affinity emphasizes that these records must be assessed considering inflation.
Daily average revenues in the 2020s nominally reach $28,000, but when adjusted for inflation, this figure is just slightly above $30,000 in 2026. In comparison, actual revenues in the 1970s are estimated to have averaged $55,000 per day.
Historical Differences and Future Signs
Affinity's analyses also indicate that successful decades are often followed by unsuccessful ones. For example, daily average revenues in the 1980s dropped to $27,000 and to $17,000 in the 2010s. This trend could serve as a warning for the industry that any boom may lead to a recession.
The Hartland Institute has also pointed out that the current boom is largely due to rising fleet costs caused by supply chain issues and sanctions. This institute has emphasized that currently, fleets have been forced to undertake longer journeys due to conflicts, which has contributed to the high current revenues.
Affinity has also addressed the status of new orders and shown that global orders have not yet reached historical lows. The ratio of orders to the existing fleet is only 22%, while this figure reached 55% in 2008 and 104.5% in 1971.
Ultimately, based on the analyses conducted, despite the unprecedented booms in the past five years, there is a possibility that the maritime shipping industry has not yet reached its peak and that other economic and historical conditions must also be considered.
