The President of Iran has traveled to Turkmenistan to create the necessary conditions for gas imports from this country. This trip comes at a time when the country is facing a severe gas shortage and damage to the South Pars refinery's capacity.
Gas Imports from Turkmenistan Amid Imbalance
The Iranian energy network has faced unprecedented challenges in recent months. The severe gas shortage caused by damage to the South Pars refinery and accumulated imbalances from previous years poses a direct threat to heating homes in the northern and northeastern provinces of the country. These areas are at the highest risk of gas outages due to their great distance from the southern gas fields.
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As the fourth-largest holder of gas reserves in the world, Turkmenistan has a high capacity for gas exports to Iran. The experience of three decades of gas trade relations between the two countries and the memorandum of understanding signed between the national leader of Turkmenistan and the President of Iran in 2024 indicate that the path for cooperation has already been paved.
Tripartite Agreement and Its Benefits
The successful experience of the tripartite agreement between Iran, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, which has been in effect since the beginning of 2023, shows that gas swaps can meet domestic needs without requiring heavy investment in new pipelines and also generate transit revenue for the country. In this model, Turkmen gas is delivered in northeastern Iran, and Iran delivers an equivalent amount at other border points. This mechanism helps minimize foreign currency expenditure and increases the flexibility of the network in meeting seasonal needs.
Contrary to the common perception that Turkmenistan is a cautious partner in gas negotiations, field evidence shows that Ashgabat not only welcomes cooperation with Iran but has also demonstrated its readiness in sensitive situations. The export of electricity from Turkmenistan to Iran in the summer amidst the war is a prime example of this cooperation, indicating that Turkmenistan can play an active role in ensuring Iran's social and energy security.
However, challenges such as the need to establish a bilateral financial mechanism exist. Past experiences have shown that even signed agreements have not led to operational contracts without resolving these obstacles, and they must be addressed in high-level negotiations.
The President's trip to Turkmenistan and meeting with the national leader of this country is a high-level diplomatic action. However, turning it into a strategic achievement requires direct consultations and serious follow-up to activate the 2024 memorandum of understanding. The success of this trip hinges on finalizing the gas import contract and determining the bilateral financial and banking mechanisms so that part of the gas shortage in the north and northeast of the country can be compensated before the cold season.
Importing gas from Turkmenistan not only helps alleviate the imbalance during peak consumption periods but also enhances energy security and the resilience of the network, bringing energy equity to the northeastern population. As the alarm bells of imbalance reach the residential sector, sustainable energy supply is a national necessity.
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