The global LNG trade map is changing due to major shifts in Gulf exports and new European demand. Gas prices have reached nearly $30 per million BTU, while revenues for LNG carriers in the market remain very weak.
Impact of the Hormuz Crisis on LNG Exports
During the Hormuz crisis, oil exporters have found ways to bypass this key point. Estimates indicate that non-Iranian oil flows from the Middle East have returned to pre-war levels. However, LNG still has a different situation, and Qatar has not been able to establish the necessary infrastructure for transfers similar to oil.
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Developments in LNG Transportation
In the past week, only five confirmed transits through the Strait of Hormuz for LNG carriers have been recorded, showing a significant decrease compared to the four-week average of 12. Additionally, on October 17, the tanker Al Kharsaah, which was carrying Qatari LNG to Poland, was attacked, leading to the attackers' retreat.
Meanwhile, Italy has experienced further impacts from these changes, receiving force majeure notices for 35 Qatari LNG shipments. These shipments are equivalent to 4.6 billion cubic meters of gas, the delivery of which has been suspended until early December.
The United States is strengthening its position as the main supplier. Reports indicate that the U.S. sent 2.5 million tons of LNG to 36 shipments last week. At the same time, Europe has taken a larger share of Atlantic suppliers, with countries like Egypt also becoming major destinations for American LNG.
Changes in Demand and Supply
Changes in demand are clearly evident in India, where Oman has overtaken the United States as the largest LNG supplier to India in September. Meanwhile, China's LNG demand dropped to 5.2 million tons in September.
European countries are now facing more challenges, as gas reserves are currently only 74.6% full. This crisis could increase competition for Atlantic shipments and lead to a reduction in LNG imports from Russia.
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